Despite all the buzz around the Pi Network, the reality for its token, Pi Coin, is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. After a volatile few weeks, the price has started to fizzle out—and several signs suggest that a steep drop may be looming. Both technical indicators and fundamental red flags are aligning to paint a potentially bearish picture, with the possibility of a 45% decline not off the table.
So, what’s really going on? Here are four critical reasons why Pi Coin might be heading for a major pullback.
1. Bearish Pennant Pattern Signals Trouble
Technically, Pi Coin is flashing some classic warning signs. After briefly spiking to $1.66 on May 12, in anticipation of ecosystem-related news, the token has reversed course and dropped below its 50-period moving average on the 8-hour chart. But it’s the pattern that has analysts watching closely—a bearish pennant is forming, a chart structure that often precedes downward price breakouts.
This formation, which includes a sharp decline followed by a brief period of consolidation in a triangular shape, typically results in a continuation of the prior trend—in this case, downward. If the pattern plays out, Pi could be looking at a retest of support near $0.5580, the level where price bounced in early and late April. A breakdown below that could open the door to a further slide toward $0.40—a drop of roughly 45% from current levels.
Any potential bullish reversal would require Pi Coin to convincingly break back above the $1 psychological mark—something that currently seems unlikely without a fundamental catalyst.
2. Lack of Centralized Exchange Listings
Another concern weighing heavily on Pi Coin’s future is the lack of support from top-tier centralized exchanges like Binance or Upbit. Despite being in the spotlight for some time, Pi Network has yet to secure any major listings, and the root cause seems to lie in its centralization.
The Pi Foundation holds the overwhelming majority of the token’s supply—at least 72.7 billion Pi tokens are concentrated in just seven wallets, collectively worth over $53 billion. On top of that, the foundation reportedly controls thousands more wallets, none of which are publicly audited. This level of centralization introduces serious risks, both from a governance standpoint and a security perspective. If any of these wallets are compromised—or if the foundation offloads tokens—the price could nosedive.
With such a concentrated supply and opaque management, it’s easy to see why major exchanges are steering clear for now.
3. Massive Token Unlocks Incoming
Tokenomics are another challenge for Pi. The network is set to unlock over 271 million tokens in the next 30 days alone, with daily releases averaging more than 9 million Pi. And it doesn’t stop there—within the next 12 months, 1.49 billion more tokens are expected to be unlocked.
Considering Pi’s total supply cap is 100 billion and its circulating supply is just 7.9 billion, these unlocks represent a massive dilution event. Unless there’s a surge in demand to offset this increasing supply, basic market mechanics suggest that downward pressure on price is almost inevitable.
4. Pi Network Risks Becoming a “Ghost Chain”
The fundamental question looming over Pi Network is whether it actually has a future as a functional blockchain ecosystem. Though it launched with some 100 decentralized applications (dApps), few have gained any traction. There’s little evidence of consistent developer activity or user engagement, leading many to label it a potential “ghost chain”—a blockchain that exists but has no real adoption or utility.
To be fair, Pi Network has announced a $100 million fund to incentivize new projects and developers. But until those efforts materialize into real, usable applications, the token lacks the utility needed to justify its current valuation.
Final Thoughts: Fragile Foundations
In short, Pi Coin is teetering on a fragile foundation. The charts point to a bearish breakout, the fundamentals raise more questions than answers, and the tokenomics introduce major dilution risk. While a 45% correction may sound drastic, it’s a plausible outcome unless meaningful changes occur—like decentralized governance, exchange listings, or breakthrough dApp adoption.
Until then, holders should tread carefully, and new investors may want to wait for signs of actual utility or broader market validation before jumping in.
