Pepe Coin (PEPE), one of the leading meme coins in the crypto space, is enjoying a spectacular rally. Over the past two weeks, PEPE has climbed over 53%, and within just the last seven days, it’s surged by a remarkable 55% against Bitcoin. While this performance is grabbing headlines, crypto analysts are growing increasingly cautious. A closer look at technical patterns and on-chain metrics suggests this rocket ride might soon run out of fuel.
PEPE Defies the Odds, Outpaces Bitcoin
In a market crowded with altcoin hype and meme-driven enthusiasm, PEPE continues to stand out. The token’s price against Bitcoin has flipped a key psychological resistance—0.00000000010 BTC—into a solid support level. As of now, PEPE is trading at 0.0000000001325 BTC, making it one of the few meme coins to sustain a multi-week uptrend despite market volatility.
What’s more impressive is that PEPE’s rise came amid the buzz around other meme coins, including Solana’s emerging “Fartcoin.” Yet PEPE managed to steal the spotlight with its relentless upward momentum. But every rally faces a test—and PEPE’s appears to be approaching.
Reversal Signals: Are the Bulls Running on Fumes?
Zooming in on the PEPE/BTC trading pair, there’s growing concern that the token is struggling to break through previous highs. The price has failed to surpass the 72.22 level—a peak previously touched in late January 2025. If the price drops below the critical 61.59 support level on the daily chart, it could confirm a bearish trend reversal.
Technical traders are already adjusting their strategies. Many are placing trailing stops or locking in profits, wary of a sudden reversal. Should the breakdown materialize, potential downside targets include 41.82 and 40.11 on the PEPE/BTC index, making caution a smart play in the short term.
On-Chain Data Hints at Bullish Exhaustion
Beyond price action, on-chain signals are flashing yellow. PEPE’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has dropped from a high near 40% to 25.82%, signaling that short-term holders are beginning to take profits. Historically, when MVRV ratios enter these “danger zones,” a wave of sell pressure often follows.
In fact, past market cycles have shown that when the MVRV hovers around 20-30%, short-term holders—often those who bought at lower levels—begin to cash out, driving the price lower. With MVRV now just above the 20% threshold, PEPE may be teetering on the edge of a correction.
Profit-Taking Could Accelerate Decline
Investors sitting on unrealized gains are increasingly tempted to lock in profits, especially with such a sharp recent surge. If enough of them pull the trigger, it could create a domino effect, accelerating downward pressure. Open interest and trading volumes should be monitored closely to catch signs of fading momentum or a fresh buying surge.
Final Thoughts: PEPE’s Path Forward
PEPE’s stunning rally has reminded the market that meme coins are still very much alive and capable of outperforming even Bitcoin under the right conditions. But the recent data suggests that traders should remain vigilant. A failure to hold key support levels could lead to a sharp pullback.
Still, if PEPE manages to stabilize and attract new interest, especially from retail traders seeking the next big meme coin, it might yet defy the odds again. For now, though, the prudent move is to trail your stops, stay nimble, and prepare for what could be the beginning of a cooling-off period.
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