Bitcoin’s recent climb to fresh all-time highs has ignited excitement across the crypto landscape — but not everyone is celebrating. Beneath the surface of bullish euphoria, seasoned traders are sounding the alarm, warning that Bitcoin may be running on fumes. Despite the thrill of price discovery, some analysts argue that this rally could be nearing its final stages.
Bitcoin Hits New Highs — But Skepticism Lingers
Bitcoin has soared by more than 30% in the second quarter of 2025, crossing new milestones and setting records that just months ago seemed out of reach. Yet, for some market watchers, these gains feel less like the start of a new era and more like a final spike before a major cooldown.
Data from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro confirmed that Bitcoin reached its highest levels to date this week. But instead of triggering widespread confidence, the move has prompted warnings of overextension and exhaustion.
Traders Eye a Pullback — And Possibly a New Bear Market
One of the more cautious voices comes from Stockmoney Lizards, a trading group that’s revisiting a roadmap they first published in late 2023. Their updated view overlays current price action with historical expectations and predicts a cycle peak around Q4 of this year. After that? A potential downturn that could drag Bitcoin back to the $69,000 zone — the top of the last major bull cycle in 2021.
“We shared this roadmap in December 2023,” the group wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “The price is tracking slightly below the original projection, but the timeline remains pretty accurate.”
Historical Patterns Still Hold Weight
Some market veterans are comparing current conditions with previous cycles, noting that while the environment has changed — particularly with the influx of institutional capital — the emotional cycles of fear and greed remain consistent.
Crypto Chase, a popular trader, pointed out that BTC is now trading well above its standard exponential moving averages (EMAs) on weekly charts — a pattern that often precedes a short-term correction.
“Every time Bitcoin moves too far above its EMAs, it tends to come back down — even if briefly,” he posted. “We could be overdue for one of those moments.”
This kind of retracement doesn’t necessarily spell doom, but it does suggest that the rally could pause or even reverse before any further upside. EMAs often act as magnets during corrections, and BTC currently sits well outside its usual range.
Bitcoin “Looks Exhausted” — Is the Momentum Fading?
Another voice joining the chorus is trader Roman, who echoed concerns about Bitcoin’s recent behavior. In a post on X, he pointed to bearish divergences in the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a popular momentum indicator.
“Bitcoin just looks tired right now,” Roman explained. “This doesn’t mean a crash is imminent, but it’s enough for me to take a step back and not risk holding spot positions at this level.”
Roman also drew parallels between current market dynamics and those of 2021, when BTC topped out near $69K before entering a long, grinding bear market.
Institutional Inflows May Complicate the Picture
To be fair, not everyone is convinced a correction is imminent. Some argue that this cycle is fundamentally different due to the sheer scale of institutional involvement. With major asset managers, ETFs, and traditional investors entering the scene, the usual patterns could become less predictable.
Still, even proponents of this view acknowledge that markets don’t go up in straight lines. And while long-term bullishness may still be justified, traders are urging caution in the short term.
Bottom Line: Stay Alert, Not Complacent
It’s easy to get swept up in the excitement when Bitcoin is breaking records — but smart money knows that the best time to prepare for a downturn is when everything seems perfect. Whether this marks the beginning of the end or just a breather before the next leg up, the message from many experienced traders is clear: now’s the time to be cautious, not complacent.
With BTC showing signs of fatigue and technical indicators flashing warning signals, even the most bullish investor should consider the possibility of a cooldown. As always in crypto, timing is everything — and sitting on the sidelines for a bit may be the most strategic move of all.
