The road to Bitcoin’s next peak may still have miles left to travel—at least according to independent Bitcoin analyst Sminston With. In a recent update shared via X (formerly Twitter), With made waves in the crypto community by projecting a potential cycle top between $220,000 and $330,000 for Bitcoin before the end of 2025. While the numbers might seem ambitious at first glance, the logic behind the forecast is deeply rooted in data and historical price behavior.
With’s analysis hinges on a long-term chart that uses Bitcoin’s 365-day simple moving average (SMA) and overlays it with a power law model—one that has shown a remarkably high correlation (R² = 0.96) with Bitcoin’s previous market cycles. Unlike traditional exponential growth models used in stock markets, this approach suggests Bitcoin’s value follows a more sustainable, mathematically predictable trajectory over time.
What stands out in the chart is how Bitcoin’s 365-day SMA typically peaks at two to three times above the power law trendline during bull cycles. With Bitcoin trading around $110,000 at the time of his post, this model implies that if history repeats—or even rhymes—the next logical peak could lie in the $220K to $330K range.
That’s a potentially massive gain of 100% to 200% from current levels, and it offers a more structured counterpoint to other sky-high predictions in the space. It’s not just hopium; it’s based on historical behavior across multiple cycles.
Interestingly, With’s research also challenges a common belief among investors—that Bitcoin’s price volatility is gradually decreasing over time. His model instead shows consistent cyclical swings without signs of exponential decay, meaning the market remains as wild and volatile as ever, even as the asset matures. For seasoned crypto investors, this is both a warning and an opportunity.
In fact, With has been on the money before. Back in Q3 2024, when Bitcoin was still hovering around $60,000, he publicly projected that BTC would breach the six-figure mark by January 2025. That prediction came true. Now, he’s offered a roadmap for how Bitcoin could behave over the next few quarters, including expected corrections and rebounds tied to so-called “decaying peaks”—the phase when returns start to fade as an asset becomes widely adopted and profit-taking intensifies.
However, even the best models have limits. With is quick to point out that his data spans just four major cycles—hardly enough for rock-solid certainty. As always in crypto, caution and context matter.
Adding complexity to the picture is the recent movement among long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs). According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, over $4 billion in BTC was transferred from wallets holding coins for 1–5 years—the largest such movement since February 2025. Notably, the 3–5-year cohort accounted for over half of this volume, suggesting a bout of strategic profit-taking as prices flirt with all-time highs.
Historical data shows that such sell-offs from veteran holders often correlate with short-term price peaks. Combined with BTC’s current struggle to stay above the $110,000 level, it hints that a temporary correction might be around the corner—especially if exchange reserves start to rise again.
Technically speaking, Bitcoin has been printing a classic bullish pattern: higher highs and higher lows since bottoming out at $74,500. Following each major rally, BTC has paused to consolidate in a sideways range before taking another leg up. The most recent local low at $107,300—a former resistance level—has now become an area of support, although a deeper pullback can’t be ruled out.
Crypto analyst TXMC also chimed in with a cautionary note: Bitcoin has now posted seven straight green weekly candles. Historically, it rarely manages more than eight without either a retracement or a period of consolidation. If history holds true, the next couple of weeks could be pivotal.
In sum, while the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish with models pointing to a potential $220K–$330K high, investors should keep an eye on short-term volatility and smart-money moves from long-term holders. This cycle is far from over—but it’s not without its speed bumps.
