Despite recent dips in Bitcoin’s price, an under-the-radar but telling market indicator suggests that U.S. investors aren’t backing down. In fact, they’re doubling down.
Bitcoin has been trading under pressure lately, but a persistent and unusual 20-day streak of positive Coinbase Premium readings indicates that American buyers — both institutional and retail — are quietly fueling demand behind the scenes. For context, the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) reflects the price difference of BTC between Coinbase, which serves mostly U.S.-based customers, and other global exchanges like Binance. When that spread remains positive over time, it’s often a sign that U.S. investors are paying slightly more to secure their BTC — a powerful signal of localized demand strength.
This recent 20-day run of positive CPI is the longest such stretch in 2025 so far. And it’s not just the premium itself raising eyebrows — analysts are also pointing to large BTC outflows from Coinbase as further confirmation of aggressive accumulation, potentially linked to ETFs and corporate entities.
On May 26 alone, Coinbase saw a net outflow of nearly 8,742 BTC, ranking among the highest single-day withdrawals in recent weeks. Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci interprets this as a classic setup for institutional accumulation. Historically, similar outflows have preceded bullish catalysts like ETF inflows or major corporate BTC purchases.
BTC Selling Pressure Shows Signs of Weakening
In contrast to the strong demand from U.S. investors, selling activity from both short-term and long-term holders is easing — another bullish signal. Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin market researcher, points out that the 30-day moving average of the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has recently peaked, meaning these investors are realizing profits. However, the SOPR remains relatively moderate compared to past market tops, suggesting that investors aren’t selling in a panic or out of greed.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant backs this up. In prior sell-offs, such as the August 2024 drop and April’s tariff-related correction, long- and short-term holders dumped over 12,000 and 14,000 BTC to Binance, respectively. Today’s levels are far more contained, hovering around just 8,000 BTC — a volume more in line with minor corrections rather than a major bearish trend.
Put simply, while some short-term profit-taking is happening, long-term conviction remains intact — and the lack of heavy sell pressure from either group reinforces Bitcoin’s bullish undercurrent.
Technical Chart Patterns Point to $118K Target
Looking at the charts, Bitcoin’s current setup suggests the potential for a breakout toward $118,000. The price has formed a descending triangle on the 1-hour timeframe — typically a consolidation pattern that precedes a breakout. The $106,000 to $104,000 range is acting as a strong support zone, reinforced by what traders refer to as a “daily order block” — a price region where buying activity has consistently surged in the past.
Perhaps even more importantly, a bullish divergence is forming on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). While Bitcoin’s price has been making lower lows, RSI has been climbing, signaling a decoupling of price and momentum — often a precursor to a bullish reversal.
Some analysts suggest a short-term dip below $107,000 could act as a “liquidity sweep,” drawing in sell orders before a swift rebound. If this rebound holds above the $104K support and confirms the divergence, it could ignite a move toward the $118K target.
Final Thoughts
While Bitcoin’s price action may appear shaky on the surface, a closer look reveals a market quietly aligning for a potential leg higher. The combination of strong U.S. buying activity, declining sell-side pressure, and encouraging technical indicators paints a picture of a market that’s consolidating strength — not losing it.
With the Coinbase Premium holding firm for nearly three weeks and on-chain signals remaining favorable, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bitcoin attempt another breakout in June — possibly targeting the $118,000 level that chart watchers have been eyeing for weeks.
As always in crypto, volatility remains a constant. But for now, the market’s quiet confidence may speak louder than the charts suggest.
