With the May 29 deadline fast approaching, excitement around a potential Cardano (ADA) spot ETF approval is building to a fever pitch. Investors are watching closely, hoping that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will finally greenlight another cryptocurrency ETF after the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum counterparts. But the big question remains: Will the SEC approve it, delay it, or dismiss it altogether?
Cardano ETF Odds Climb to New Heights
According to data from prediction market Polymarket, the odds of a Cardano ETF getting approved have soared to an all-time high of 71%. That’s a significant leap from earlier this month when optimism had dipped and odds fell to just 49%. The sharp turnaround has been fueled by several key factors—most notably rising speculation, bullish expert forecasts, and the broader success of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Grayscale’s application for a Cardano ETF, submitted earlier this year, is among a growing list of crypto-related ETF filings waiting for regulatory decisions. The SEC has reportedly acknowledged the filing and must deliver a decision by May 29. That looming deadline has helped drive ADA’s price higher, with the token trading around $0.77—marking a 3.5% daily gain and over 6.5% in the past week.
Market Sentiment and Technicals Fuel Optimism
The optimism isn’t just based on hype. Analysts and traders are pointing to bullish price action and technical indicators that suggest ADA is gearing up for a potential breakout. Currently trading above key resistance levels, Cardano has formed multiple bullish patterns on the charts. Some price predictions are eyeing a short-term rally toward $0.84, with long-term projections reaching as high as $13—contingent, of course, on regulatory momentum.
The potential approval of a Cardano ETF is being seen as a major catalyst that could accelerate institutional adoption of ADA. If the SEC gives the green light, it would mark a historic moment not just for Cardano, but for altcoins more broadly, signaling a possible shift in how regulators view the broader crypto ecosystem.
Regulatory Reality Check: A Delicate Balancing Act
However, despite the growing buzz, investors would do well to temper expectations with a dose of caution. The SEC has already delayed decisions on several other high-profile crypto ETF applications, including Solana and XRP. The commission continues to cite the need for additional time to review compliance measures and assess investor protections.
Some industry voices, including a prominent Cardano-focused analyst, remain hopeful. They point to favorable Polymarket odds, past comments from SEC insiders like Paul Atkins, and a Bloomberg report forecasting a 75% chance of approval. These signals suggest that an approval isn’t just a long shot—it might be within reach. But nothing is certain until the SEC makes an official announcement.
Too Many Filings, Not Enough Decisions?
A major challenge for the SEC is the sheer volume of pending ETF applications—over 70 at last count. With so many crypto-related ETFs under review, including those tied to XRP, Dogecoin, and others, the commission’s bandwidth is clearly stretched thin. While the futures-based XRP ETF was recently launched with impressive trading volume, it’s unclear whether this momentum will spill over to spot products like ADA.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Week for Cardano and Crypto at Large
The countdown is on, and the crypto community is holding its breath. A positive decision on the Cardano ETF could be a game-changer for ADA, offering increased legitimacy and drawing a fresh wave of institutional capital into the ecosystem. But the SEC has proven cautious, even with strong market indicators and pressure from the industry.
Whether May 29 becomes a celebratory milestone or another “wait-and-see” moment, one thing is clear—Cardano has arrived in the big leagues, and its future could soon look very different depending on the outcome.
