As the month draws to a close, all eyes are on Ethereum (ETH), with $2.4 billion in options contracts set to expire on May 30. The stakes are high—especially for bullish investors—who are aiming to keep ETH above the $2,600 level and potentially drive it past the $2,700 mark for the first time in over three months. Yet, despite the optimistic tone in the options market, Ethereum’s broader landscape paints a more nuanced picture.
So far in 2025, ETH has underperformed compared to the overall crypto market. While the total market cap has gained about 5%, Ether is still down around 21% year-to-date. This relative weakness has raised concerns, particularly given the increasing competition from faster and more scalable blockchain networks like Solana, Tron, and BNB Chain. These rivals have been gaining traction in the decentralized applications (dApp) arena—once Ethereum’s core domain.
Still, there’s a silver lining for Ether bulls: the influx of institutional capital. Ethereum remains the only major altcoin with an approved spot ETF in the U.S., a feature that has driven renewed investor interest. Between May 19 and May 27 alone, ETH-based ETFs saw net inflows of $287 million. That’s a strong sign that institutional players are willing to back Ether—especially at its current valuation.
Yet the enthusiasm around ETH doesn’t extend uniformly across its ecosystem. On-chain activity has noticeably slowed, and Ethereum has fallen out of the top ten in network fees generated—an uncharacteristic position for a network once regarded as the backbone of decentralized finance. This decline in usage contributes to a supply-demand imbalance, potentially adding inflationary pressure to ETH’s price.
From a derivatives market perspective, Ethereum’s options data reflects a bullish tilt—at least for now. Out of the $2.4 billion in open interest set to expire, roughly $1.3 billion are call (buy) options, compared to $1.1 billion in puts (sell). But here’s where it gets interesting: nearly 97% of the put options are tied to strike prices of $2,600 or below. That means unless ETH drops significantly before expiry, the vast majority of these bearish bets will expire worthless.
Call holders have the upper hand, especially if ETH can stay above $2,600. Here’s a breakdown of the most likely profit scenarios for bulls based on the current price range:
- $2,300–$2,500: Bulls lead with a $200 million advantage.
- $2,500–$2,600: Bulls ahead by $370 million.
- $2,600–$2,700: Net advantage of $555 million for call holders.
- $2,700–$2,900: The most lucrative range for bulls, with a potential $770 million edge.
This setup gives Ether bulls every reason to push prices higher—if only temporarily—as the options expiry approaches. But even if traders manage to breach the $2,700 level, sustaining that momentum may be the real challenge.
That’s because the crypto market remains tightly correlated with traditional equities, particularly the S&P 500. Any macroeconomic turbulence, weak corporate earnings, or hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could quickly sap risk appetite and pull ETH lower again. In this environment, short-term technical drivers like options expiries may only offer fleeting relief against a backdrop of bigger economic forces.
In conclusion, while Ethereum bulls are certainly in a favorable position heading into the May 30 options expiry, the celebration may be short-lived unless on-chain metrics and macro trends turn more supportive. The $2,700 target is within reach, but sustaining a breakout beyond it may require more than just favorable derivatives positioning—it might take a broader revival in Ethereum’s network utility and a supportive macroeconomic backdrop.
