In a striking shift in the investment landscape, JPMorgan analysts have projected that Bitcoin is set to outperform gold during the second half of 2025. This bullish outlook is driven by increasing institutional interest and the growing embrace of Bitcoin by several U.S. state governments, signaling a potential reshaping of traditional safe-haven assets.
The Battle of the Safe Havens: Bitcoin vs. Gold
Historically, gold has been the go-to refuge for investors seeking protection against the erosion of fiat currencies, a phenomenon often referred to as the “debasement trade.” However, JPMorgan’s team, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlights that this trade has evolved into a zero-sum game where Bitcoin is steadily gaining ground over the precious metal.
From mid-February through mid-April 2025, gold had an edge, appreciating as Bitcoin took a breather. Yet, recent trends over the past three weeks show a reversal—Bitcoin is now making significant gains at gold’s expense. JPMorgan anticipates this tug-of-war between the two will persist throughout the year but suggests that Bitcoin’s unique catalysts could give it a considerable advantage moving forward.
Market Moves Reflect Changing Sentiment
Price action underlines this evolving dynamic. Since April 22, gold prices have dropped by nearly 8%, while Bitcoin’s price has surged approximately 18%. This divergence is further validated by fund flows, with investors pulling capital from gold-backed ETFs and reallocating it to Bitcoin. Futures market data echoes the same narrative, with Bitcoin futures rising as gold futures decline.
What’s fueling Bitcoin’s momentum is not merely gold’s slump but a series of crypto-specific factors boosting confidence and demand. Corporations and strategic investment firms are increasingly stepping into the Bitcoin space, accelerating the digital asset’s upward trajectory.
Corporate Appetite for Bitcoin Grows
Among the biggest corporate backers is Strategy, a company aiming to amass $84 billion worth of Bitcoin by 2027, already achieving nearly a third of this ambitious target. Alongside Strategy, Metaplanet has emerged as a standout, reporting its strongest quarterly performance in Q1 FY2025. The firm has significantly bolstered its Bitcoin holdings, now totaling 6,796 BTC—a nearly fourfold increase year-to-date.
Despite enduring a temporary valuation setback due to Bitcoin’s price dip in March (equating to a ¥7.4 billion loss), Metaplanet bounced back swiftly. As of May 12, it boasts unrealized gains totaling ¥13.5 billion. This remarkable growth reflects a 103-fold increase in the value of their Bitcoin holdings since adopting the Bitcoin Treasury Standard, with the company’s market capitalization soaring by over 138 times.
U.S. States Embrace Bitcoin Reserves
On the governmental front, Bitcoin’s adoption is gaining momentum in the United States. New Hampshire recently passed legislation permitting up to 5% of state reserves to be held in Bitcoin. Arizona, a trailblazer in crypto adoption, has established a Bitcoin Reserve and pledged not to raise taxes as part of its pro-crypto agenda launched in 2018.
JPMorgan analysts point out that as more states contemplate adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, these moves could serve as sustained tailwinds for Bitcoin’s growth. This rising institutional acceptance at the state level adds a layer of legitimacy and stability to Bitcoin’s narrative as a viable store of value.
Looking Ahead
The combination of institutional accumulation, supportive state policies, and the evolving investor preference between Bitcoin and gold paints an optimistic picture for Bitcoin’s future. JPMorgan’s outlook suggests that Bitcoin is not only carving out a niche alongside traditional assets but is increasingly poised to surpass gold as the preferred hedge against fiat currency risks in the near term.
For investors watching the space, the latter half of 2025 could be pivotal as Bitcoin continues to cement its role in portfolios, potentially rewriting the rules of wealth preservation and asset allocation.
