The long wait for a Dogecoin ETF continues as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) once again postponed its verdict on Grayscale’s application for a spot DOGE exchange-traded fund. While this delay didn’t come as a complete surprise, it certainly put a damper on hopes for an immediate regulatory breakthrough. Still, the next possible decision window is approaching, and according to market watchers, we may be looking at a more concrete timeline in the latter half of 2025.
Another Delay in the Dogecoin ETF Saga
Grayscale’s spot Dogecoin ETF filing, submitted earlier this year following the January launch of its DOGE Trust, remains in regulatory limbo. Investors had hoped for movement by now, especially given the roaring success of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have already begun raking in billions in net inflows and reshaping the institutional investment landscape. Instead, the SEC has chosen to extend the review period, citing the need for deeper analysis and compliance checks under Section 6(b)(5) of the Exchange Act—a section designed to safeguard investors and prevent market manipulation.
This isn’t just a DOGE story either. The Commission is currently evaluating more than 70 crypto-based ETF proposals, including applications tied to XRP, Solana, and Litecoin. Despite this broader context, the delay hits especially hard for Dogecoin supporters, who view regulatory approval as a major step toward legitimizing the meme coin’s place in the crypto ecosystem.
June Is Next, But Don’t Bet the House
The next scheduled date for the SEC to potentially issue a decision is in June. However, the agency’s own filings indicate that even this date may be more procedural than final. Rather than signaling a likely approval or denial, the June window gives the SEC another opportunity to request public input or extend the review once again.
In their recent filing, the Commission emphasized that additional time is necessary “to determine whether the proposed rule change should be approved or disapproved,” particularly to assess whether it aligns with measures designed to prevent fraud and protect investors. It’s a cautious, methodical approach—one that’s become par for the course when it comes to crypto ETFs.
When Might the Green Light Come?
While the delays are frustrating, analysts say the timeline makes sense. According to data from Polymarket, the probability of a Dogecoin ETF being approved before the end of July has dipped to just 15%, down significantly from earlier in the month. Yet, longer-term sentiment remains optimistic. Approval odds for later in 2025—especially around October—are sitting at a healthier 63%, reflecting growing confidence in an eventual breakthrough.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has echoed this cautious optimism. In a recent social media post, Seyffart emphasized that there’s no behind-the-scenes drama at play—just the SEC sticking to its routine. “This is standard procedure,” he wrote. “The SEC usually takes the full allotted time for 19b-4 filings. Most of these crypto ETF applications, including Dogecoin’s, have final deadlines set for October.”
In other words, early approval would be an exception, not the rule. And while many in the community remain hopeful for faster progress, the more likely scenario is a decision this fall.
What This Means for DOGE Investors
For Dogecoin holders, the SEC’s cautious stance might feel like a cold shower, especially after the excitement around Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, this delay doesn’t signal rejection—it simply highlights the regulatory body’s deliberate pace.
If history is any guide, a delayed ETF decision doesn’t necessarily mean bad news. The Bitcoin ETF, after all, took years of SEC foot-dragging before it finally got the green light. And when it did, the impact on BTC’s price and legitimacy was significant.
Dogecoin may be next in line for such a transformative moment. But for now, investors will need to stay patient, keep an eye on October, and remember that sometimes, regulatory progress is more marathon than sprint.
