Solana (SOL) is once again capturing attention from traders and analysts, as recent technical patterns and futures data paint a picture that could see the cryptocurrency soar to new heights. With SOL currently trading around $172, the charts suggest the possibility of a dramatic rally—up to 180%—that could propel the token to the $300 mark, provided a critical technical trend remains intact.
The price action around Solana has been intriguing. On May 11, SOL tested the important $180 resistance level but has since hovered just below this threshold without establishing a strong bullish foothold. Yet, despite this temporary stall, there’s a positive sign that shouldn’t be overlooked: SOL has closed above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for three weeks in a row. Historically, holding above this moving average has often been the launchpad for significant upward price moves.
Looking back to late 2023, Solana’s breakout above both the 50-week and 100-week EMAs was followed by a massive rally—gaining over 500% by March 2024. This past performance highlights the strength of the current setup. The weekly relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator, now sits at a neutral-to-bullish reading of 52.60, signaling growing buying interest that could help SOL mount another push higher.
Using Fibonacci retracement and extension tools to analyze the trend, Solana’s upside potential becomes even clearer. From recent swing lows near $95 to January’s highs close to $295, the Fibonacci extension points to an immediate target near $300. That represents roughly a 70% gain from current levels. Should bullish momentum intensify further, SOL could even push toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which technical models estimate around $418.
However, it’s important to remember the risks. If Solana fails to maintain support above the 50-week EMA, it could slip back toward the lower support zone around $157, marking a potential short-term setback.
Beyond price charts, the futures market adds another dimension to Solana’s story. Open interest—the total value of outstanding futures contracts—stands at about $7.5 billion. This figure is only slightly below the January 2025 peak of $8.5 billion, indicating a sustained high level of trader interest and the possibility of increased volatility. Such elevated open interest often signals that big moves, either up or down, could be imminent.
An interesting twist comes from the funding rates across different exchanges, which are currently negative. Negative funding typically means more traders are shorting SOL, betting on price declines. While this could be bearish, it also sets the stage for a potential short squeeze, where shorts are forced to cover, accelerating price gains.
Crypto analyst Byzantine General pointed out that this mix of high open interest, rising trading volume, and relatively balanced funding rates might mean SOL’s price is stabilizing before a potential breakout. According to his view, if upward momentum can build, Solana may well retest—and possibly surpass—the $300 barrier.
Still, not everyone is fully optimistic. Trader Carl Moon has warned of a possible double top formation on Solana’s 4-hour chart, a bearish pattern that could lead to a pullback toward the $152–$157 range if it materializes. This makes the $180 resistance level a crucial battleground: a strong break above it could confirm a bullish continuation, while a rejection may trigger a healthy correction.
In summary, Solana’s price action and market data suggest a pivotal moment. With historical trends favoring a major rally, and futures market dynamics hinting at increased speculative positioning, the path toward $300 looks plausible if key support levels hold firm. However, cautious traders will want to watch for signs of a breakdown at $180, which could temporarily cool the rally.
For investors and traders following Solana, the weeks ahead promise exciting opportunities and challenges as the altcoin seeks to carve out its next chapter in the crypto markets.
