Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a critical phase in its current market cycle, and eyes are now focused on the upcoming weekly close. For the first time in a while, Bitcoin bulls find themselves on the brink of pushing the market back to all-time highs and beyond. However, to kickstart the next leg of this rally, there’s one crucial price point that Bitcoin needs to hold — and it’s closer than it appears.
The $104,500 Level: Bitcoin’s Line in the Sand
Bitcoin has seen impressive gains heading into May 11, with its price climbing to nearly $105,000, marking a fresh multi-month high. The upside volatility, which took place over the weekend, was fueled in part by positive market sentiment, particularly surrounding potential developments in the US-China trade relationship.
For those closely watching Bitcoin’s technical indicators, the key level for this week is $104,500. According to renowned trader Rekt Capital, this is the “range high” level that Bitcoin must close above to begin a new price discovery phase, which some analysts have dubbed “Price Discovery 2.”
Rekt Capital’s analysis paints an optimistic picture, suggesting that if Bitcoin manages to secure a weekly close above $104,500, it will signal a shift from the current consolidation phase into a full breakout, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency back to its all-time highs — and perhaps even beyond.
As he put it on X (formerly Twitter): “Can Bitcoin Weekly Close above the Range High of its recently reclaimed Re-Accumulation Range to kickstart the breakout process?” This level is not just a price point but a psychological threshold for the broader market, marking the start of a possible new bull run.
Liquidity Clusters and the $106,000 Battleground
Looking ahead, there’s a noticeable clustering of liquidity just below $106,000, according to exchange data from CoinGlass. This indicates that $106,000 will likely become a significant point of resistance — and also the next major battleground in the fight for higher prices.
At the same time, bids have piled up around $102,000, creating a thick band of support. This suggests that Bitcoin is in a tightly squeezed price range, with traders positioning themselves for either a breakthrough or a potential retracement.
For Bitcoin to maintain its upward trajectory, it will need to clear these levels and establish a firm foundation above them. Failing to do so could result in a pullback, where the current price gains are lost, and the market enters a period of consolidation once again.
The Bearish Perspective: A Cautionary Tale
While the bullish case for Bitcoin is gaining traction, there are still voices of caution in the market. Popular trader HTL-NL has warned that the push towards all-time highs could be a “fakeout,” designed to trap late longs who are jumping in too late in the cycle. He speculated that Bitcoin might fail to close the week above key levels, causing a “UTAD” (Upthrust After Distribution), which often signals a false breakout before a reversal.
Similarly, Il Capo of Crypto, a well-known figure in the Bitcoin trading community, has raised concerns that the entire upward move could eventually be reversed. He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently testing strong resistance levels and argued that if this rally is merely a correction in a larger downtrend that began in January, the market could soon witness a full retracement.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The coming days will likely determine whether Bitcoin will enter its next bull phase or experience a pullback. For now, the key to Bitcoin’s potential surge is the $104,500 level. If Bitcoin can hold above this point and close the week strong, it could signal the start of a new bull market that pushes Bitcoin closer to its historical price peaks.
In this volatile market, anything can happen. The confluence of liquidity at key price levels and the mix of bullish and bearish sentiment makes for an exciting — and uncertain — ride ahead. The battle for control between buyers and sellers will likely continue to play out in the coming weeks, but Bitcoin’s price action is certainly one to watch as we head into the next phase of the market cycle.
